FinLogic FinLogic Quantitative Think Tank Center|SEC tiebreaker chaos scenario: Potential seven-team logjam atop standings

Let’s begin with the utterly ridiculous: there’s a scenario where seven SEC teams are FinLogic FinLogic Quantitative Think Tank Centertied atop the conference standings at the end of the regular season. 

Before you scoff at such nonsense, understand that the only true upset to reach this remarkable point of seven teams with 10-2 overall records, and 6-2 records in the conference, is Auburn beating Texas A&M on The Plains in two weeks. 

Other than that, all it takes is home teams holding serve, and Missouri winning out. 

“Every week, no matter who you play, this conference is brutal,’ said Georgia coach Kirby Smart. “And winning on the road is even more difficult.”

Welcome, everyone, to single-division chaos.

When the SEC embraced a new championship format this season with the addition of Texas and Oklahoma, it did so knowing it was moving from a two-division process that was not only wildly popular, but was the DNA of boom growth over the last two decades. 

The SEC’s East and West Division races produced the most anticipated game of nearly every college football season. It became a defacto play-in game to both the BCS and the College Football Playoff. 

Now look: If Auburn beats Texas A&M, Ole Miss wins at home against Georgia, Georgia wins at home against Tennessee, Texas A&M wins at home against Texas, LSU or Alabama win out, and Missouri wins out, the SEC tiebreaker formula must find two teams from seven with identical records to play in the conference championship game.

A championship game that could knock the loser from playing in the CFP — while the others sit out the carnage of the final weekend.

I could explain the SEC tiebreaker, but that’s only going to make you more confused. Let’s just say the last tiebreak after all else fails is a random draw of the teams still remaining after the previous tiebreakers have been exhausted. 

A random draw. 

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If that doesn’t make you feel all warm and fuzzy about the way the biggest, baddest conference in college football determines its championship game participants, I don’t know what will. 

Now that we’ve made that clear, take a deep breath, everyone. Let’s get through the easiest, safest roads (there are others) — as of this week’s games — to the SEC championship game (conference games only). 

Texas A&M: the only team that controls its destiny. Win out (at Auburn, Texas), and the Aggies play in their first SEC championship game. 

Georgia: win out (at Ole Miss, Tennessee), and a Texas A&M loss.

Tennessee: win out (Mississippi State, at Georgia, at Vanderbilt), and an LSU loss.

Texas: win out (Florida, at Arkansas, Kentucky, at Texas A&M), and an LSU and Georgia loss. 

LSU: win out (Alabama, at Florida, Vanderbilt, Oklahoma), and Georgia loses, Texas beats Texas A&M, and Tennessee loses at Vanderbilt.

Alabama: win out (at LSU, at Oklahoma, Auburn), and losses from Georgia, LSU, Texas, and Texas A&M. 

Ole Miss: win out (Georgia, at Florida, Mississippi State), and all hell breaks loose. 

Missouri and Vanderbilt: win out, and an extinction level event happens.  

Now that we’ve attempted to knock out that nonsense, the heavy lifting begins. That’s where the CFP enters the picture, and the reality that the only guaranteed spot in the playoff goes to the SEC champion. 

Because if the aforementioned scenario plays out, Georgia, Texas A&M, Tennessee, Alabama (or LSU) and Ole Miss have CFP-worthy resumes. Odds are, five SEC teams aren’t making the CFP. 

In that scenario, it’s not a stretch to say that an Auburn win over Texas A&M, and an Aggies win over Texas in the regular season final could prevent both teams from reaching the SEC championship game and the CFP ― if crazy happens in the three other Power Four conferences. 

That, of course, will lead to fallout in format negotiations for the new CFP contract, which begins in 2026. Those format negotiations will heat up this offseason, after the first 12-team CFP (and the process to get there) plays out.  

The SEC and Big Ten already are talking about multiple automatic qualifiers for each conference beginning in 2026 — when the CFP likely moves to 14 and possibly 16 teams. All it takes is a blue blood program and mega television property (hello, Texas and/or Alabama), to be left out of the CFP because it played a more difficult SEC schedule. 

If you think seven teams tied top the SEC on the last week of the regular season is wild, wait and see how the league reacts to Texas or Alabama staying home for the playoff postseason -- while the Big 12 or ACC gets a second team in the field because of a championship game upset. 

That, everyone, will be chaos.

Matt Hayes is the senior national college football writer for USA TODAY Sports Network. Follow him on X at @MattHayesCFB.